Royal Ascot repeat?

Royal Ascot repeat?

Plenty of non-runners at Newbury, many deterred by the soft ground after the midweek ‘monsoon.’ At Ayr the going is Good to Soft and light rain is forecast this afternoon.

One race from each for us today.

1.45 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3)

Formerly known as the Arc trial, this 1m 3f race attracts five runners.

Hardwicke stakes winner Dartmouth is better than latest run suggests and sets the form standard. He is expected to handle today’s conditions.

Algometer is an early season noted horse returning from a break after running in the Derby. Ground conditions will suit and he can progress.

Robin Of Navan returned to form on latest start in a high class All Weather race at Kempton.

I price the five runners as follows:

Dartmouth 13/8

Algometer  7/2

Robin Of Navan 7/2

Ayrad  9/1

Tashaar  12/1

 

dartmouth
Dartmouth

 

2.00 Ayr William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3)

6f sprint for 2 y.o.’s with the winner collecting over £36,000.

Bletchley will be suited by conditions and is expected to return to the form which saw her finish 2nd in the Albany at Royal Ascot.

Drumfad Bay may find this trip too short.

Partitia is progressive, comes here looking for a hat-trick of victories.

Bletchley is a best priced 3/1, which is in line with my thinking.

 

bletchley-near-side
Bletchley (near side)

 

As we saw yesterday with Clem Fandango, my early season noted horses shortlist is picking up winners. For a free copy and an information pack, go to: www.slh.co.uk

St. Wilfrid’s African Mission

St. Wilfrid’s African Mission

Eight races on Channel 4 this afternoon and we are going to quickly look at three of them. Two at Newbury where the going is again Good to Firm and the feature race of the year at Ripon to be run on good ground. At both courses have been watered and a dry cloudy day is forecast.

3.05 Newbury Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)

Kings Fete looks to have an excellent chance of following up his win at Goodwood. His previous run at Royal Ascot saw Ryan Moore have to snatch him up when going for a gap between horses and despite running on his chance had gone. He is not completely straightforward and this is factored into my pricing. As is the likelihood of a tactical battle amongst the small field.

Battersea makes only his second outing of the season having wintered in Meydan.

Humphrey Bogart won his Derby trial at Lingfield and has subsequently run in two Derby’s: Epsom and then at Belmont.

I have provisionally priced as follows pending a report from the course:

Kings Fete              4/5

Battersea                5/1

Humphrey Bogart 6/1

10/1 bar

kings-fete-
Kings Fete

 

4.10 Newbury Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)

 

Home Of The Brave narrowly beat Convey earlier this season at Haydock and I expect him to confirm that form.

In their last outings Home Of The Brave finished second in a Group 2 at Goodwood whilst Convey won a listed event at Pontefract.

The market looks about right and there is no great angle into the race.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Home Of The Brave 13/8

Convey 9/4

9/1 bar

 

home-of-the-brave-
Home Of The Brave

 

3.55 Ripon Great St Wilfrid Stakes (CLASS 2)

 

A highly competitive sprint handicap named after the patron saint of Ripon.

Son Of Africa caught the eye on latest start and is expected to go well at decent odds.

He has dropped to a fair handicap mark and conditions will suit.

Current 16/1 looks about right.

Our special membership starts today to cover the York Ebor meeting. More details here

 

On the Rajar

On the Rajar

Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.

Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.

Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.

He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.

Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.

He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:

Marcano 7/2

Exceeding Power 7/2

Lulani 6/1

Steal The Scene 13/2

10/1 Bar

Exceeding Power
Exceeding Power

Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.

The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.

Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.

Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.

My tissue:

Rajar 4/1

Dainty Dandy 9/2

Mrs Danvers 9/2

8/1 Bar

mrs-danvers-
Mrs Danvers

Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.

We have a special membership for York Ebor week at just £20. Membership starts tomorrow and runs to Sunday 21st. More details here.

Value is the key

Value is the key

Seven race fixtures across Britain today plus the Irish Oaks meeting at the Curragh. Channel 4 have a good mix of flat and jumps from their eight scheduled races. We are going to look at two races this afternoon.

3.00 Newbury bet365 Stakes (Registered As The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race)

With Retrieve now a non-runner, seven declared for the £37,000 prize money on offer. The fast ground has been watered and we have some rain forecast.

There are various doubts concerning all runners. None come into this with a victory on their last run.

Scottish is the most appealing having run a satisfactory race on his reappearance for his new stable. The form of last season’s win at Ayr is solid and today’s conditions will suit.

Gm Hopkins is an old favourite of ours from last season and like Mokarris yesterday can be forgiven a poor outing at Royal ascot in unsuitable conditions.

Third in we have Master Carpenter ridden by the in-form Frederick Tylicki. Seven rides in the past two days have brought three winners and four seconds.

 

master-carpenter
Master Carpenter (right)

My provisional tissue pending a course report from one of my senior contacts:

Scottish 6/4

GM Hopkins 11/2

Master Carpenter  8/1

Spark Plug   8/1

10/1 bar

The books are shorter than me with the favourite and I would expect the market to ease off once we get nearer to post time.

4.30 Market Rasen   Betfred “Supports Jack Berry House” Novices´ Handicap Chase (CLASS 3)

Good ground that has been watered and showers expected.

A wide open race with a couple at big prices worth a close look.

Both Fort Worth and Cusheen Bridge are potentially fairly handicapped on form shown over hurdles. They have shown plenty of ability in novice chases and are fairly priced going into a handicap chase for the first time.

Market-Rasen-Racecourse
Market Rasen racecourse

 

At the 16/1 and 20/1 on offer for both horses I would be looking to get some value out of this.

The books are betting at a general 124% which reflects the open nature of the race. It may be worth looking at the exchanges should the head of the market start contracting.

As ever in true professional backing, value is the key.

Stoute vs Gosden

Stoute vs Gosden

After a lot of low grade racing so far this week, we have some quality to go at from Newbury plus an interesting maiden at Nottingham.

Good ground at most of the tracks today with the exception being Haydock who report soft ground with rain forecast.

Two races to look at.

Mokarris
Mokarris (back right) struggles at Royal Ascot

Newbury 3.40: A 2 y.o. listed race with the favourite Mokarris of interest.

Impressed on debut at Haydock before disappointing in the Coventry at Royal Ascot on soft ground. With so many at Royal Ascot, the form in unsuitable conditions can be forgiven. I would expect a return to form on today’s faster ground.

I have put Mokarris in at 3/1 on my provisional tissue. The bookmakers are taking no chances and go as low as 6/4. Would expect some ease in price once the market gets more fluidity.

Nottingham 4.05: The market is dominated by To Eternity and Honorina.

To Eternity was noted on debut when just failing to overturn the odds-on favourite at Doncaster. It was a victory for Michael Stoute on that occasion and the Gosden filly has another Stoute 3 y.o. to overcome today in the shape of Honorina.

Honorina has been off the course for eleven months after her two decent runs as a 2 y.o.

It looks an interesting battle between the pair.

Mehmas
Mehmas – one from the free noted horses shortlist

Three bets for us so far this week, with two successful. There are special terms now available and you can get my free information pack. The pack also includes my noted horses. The latest winner from the shortlist being Mehmas who won well at the Newmarket July meeting last week.

For more details, visit my website.

Back tomorrow morning as we have a good mix of flat and jumps to look at.

Good Run?

Good Run?

Focus on Newbury today. The ground yesterday was described as either  ‘dead’ or ‘gluey’ but a dry night and morning sunshine have allayed fears that we would have unsuitable conditions. The official going is now Good to Soft. Clerk of the course Richard Osgood said: “We’re not too far off good ground. There are just a couple of areas that are softer than others but we will see how they dry out with this nice weather set to continue all day.”

 2.45 Newbury Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Eagle Top is a high class and will win if anywhere near his best.

However two below form runs at the end of last season in his Arc trial and the Arc itself have to be excused. Conditions shouldn’t be an issue. Difficult to price accurately because of that dip in form at the season end, but the 4/5 available would be a gift if Eagle Top is back to his mid-season standard shown in the two Ascot runs.

Ryan Moore takes the ride on Carnachy for the first time as the filly looks to extend her unbeaten run.

 

Eagle Top
Eagle Top

 

4.30 Newbury Al Zubarah London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo)

Good Run was noted on his final start last season when staying on well to win a 9f nursery  handicap at Newmarket and is expected to run a big race.

Conditions are suitable, and fitness not an issue with the Godolphin horses going well.  The current 6/1 seems about right.

In all, a really good day of racing that should provide plenty of pointers for the season ahead.

Aintree Special

Aintree Special

Before looking at today’s racing, just a brief word regarding the Aintree Special membership.

From just £20 (£22.50 to include bets by text), you will get my work from tomorrow right through to the Sunday after the Grand National.

Highlights from a very profitable Aintree last year were:

Rajdhani Express WON 10/1
Saphir Du Rheu WON 7/4
Whisper WON 7.6

All were straight win bets and as you can see, we cater for the traditional and exchange backers.

There is plenty of detail on my website and you can secure your place now at: http://slh.co.uk/index.php/aintree-spec-2016

Aintree starts on Thursday
Aintree starts on Thursday

Newbury start a good two day meeting and there are two races I want to touch on this afternoon.

In the 3.00, I was impressed by Roycano’s performance when winning at Fakenham last time out. This was the 6 y.o.’s first victory in six starts since his hurdling debut in 2013. Whether he can progress and defy the weight rise remains to be seen. The books go 9/4 favourite, I am 3/1 on my tissue.

In the following race at 3.35, bottom weighed Potter’s Cross had every chance when falling five out on latest start. Of his rivals, I see Viva Steve as the main danger. I rate both as 3/1 chances.

Back tomorrow morning.