Two races to look at this afternoon, both at Goodwood, where the going is Good to Firm.
3.55 Goodwood Lewis Badges 1832 March Stakes (Listed Race)
Two non-runners leaving a field of seven to contest for the £28,000 first prize.
A race made harder to price because of the conundrum that is Mr Singh. He has been below form on both starts this season, including when blinkered for the first time on his latest start at York in early July.
He has since had his ‘wedding tackle’ removed and if that helps him to rediscover last season’s form, then he sets the standard.
The vibes from the yard about his recent work have been positive.
Currently a general 11/4, which looks about right in a race full of question marks.
4.30 Goodwood Doom Bar Celebration Mile (Group 2)
Both the 3yo’s Thikriyaat and Zonderland are progressive – I find it difficult to split them.
Commenting on Thikriyaat, Angus Gold racing manager for Hamdan Al Maktoum said: “If he keeps progressing then obviously he could be running on Champions Day, but he’s got to take the next step at Goodwood first. He hasn’t disappointed us yet, but whether he’s up to a Group 1 only time will tell. It’s one step at a time for now – he’s won a Group 3, we’re trying a Group 2 in the Celebration Mile and then we’ll see.”
If any of the three older horses run to their best then the younger pair will need to demonstrate that progression to win.
An intriguing contest, where all five have their chance. Of the older horses Toormore showed positive signs in the Sussex Stakes and has ideal conditions today to recover past form.
I have them provisionally priced as follows:
Lightning Spear 11/2
Finally, a word about the need for value. Yesterday we looked at Mediciman who I had priced at 5/1 on my private tissue.He went off as 9/4 favourite and disappointed once again. Having a target price for a horse can mean that sometimes you miss a winner, but importantly it keeps you away from backing under-priced losers. In the long term having value on your side is the most professional and profitable strategy.