Medici renaissance?

Medici renaissance?

In what has been a low grade week, we have another modest days racing. Thankfully the standard picks up a bit tomorrow.

Two races for us to analyse today.

Newmarket 3.45: Mediciman is a noted horse from last season who has been one of the few disappointments from the shortlist.

Steps down in grade and up in trip to 10 furlongs for the first time. The extra distance should suit. A very tight knit seven runner handicap where no runner can be discounted.

I would want 5/1 for Mediciman, currently 9/2 best. He knows this course well .Three of his career starts have been here, including his last two.

Newmarket racecourse.
Newmarket racecourse.

Down Royal 5.45: Intriguing and relatively valuable 2m hurdle.

Prickly has proved inconsistent in the past but impressed when winning on the flat at Killarney last time. If reproducing that level of ability over hurdles he will take plenty of beating.

Has winning course form in a bumper last year.
However if Prickly disappoints again, Mai Fitz looks the one to take advantage.

I go 5/2 Prickly and 3/1 Mai Fitz.

Prickly
Prickly

Really exhilirating end to the month with a big winner last Saturday and a strong bet 7/2 winner from our only two bets so far this week.

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No lady?

No lady?

After the rain yesterday, the York going is now Good. Intermittent showers, some heavy, are forecast during the afternoon.

We have two races to look at this afternoon, starting with the Gimcrack and then the Ebor. I will be finalising my prices after getting a course report at lunchtime.

3.25 York

Blue Point is an early season noted horse who sets the form standard. He was strongly fancied when showing inexperience and just being touched off by Mehmas at Goodwood.

After that race Charlie Appleby commented: “Blue Point has been asked to go about his business and I was really pleased when Frankie’s horse came to him and we quickened and got that neck up on him. But Mehmas just has that experience and was able to outbattle us in the end. He will come forward for that for sure. He is still a very talented horse.”

Faces unexposed and progressive opposition today but expected to go close.

My provisional tissue:

Blue Point  5/2

Mokarris    5/1

Mubtasim  5/1

 

Mehmas Blue Point
Mehmas just holds off Blue Point

 

4.00 York

Just on £175,000 on offer to the winner of this ultra-competitive handicap. With the long time ante-post favourite Ivan Grozny out  through injury, the race has an even more open feel about it.

Current favourite is Antiquarium still looks to be progressing. A favourite has not won this race since 1998.

Top Tug is a stayer who may find himself outpaced at the finish.

Heartbreak City has shown marked improvement over hurdles and is respected.

I like She Is No Lady, who ran an excellent race on latest start at Sandown early last month. The form of which is fairly solid. She can improve further. Anything double figures has been nibbled at this morning, I would wait until the market gets fully going later and we can see how the ground is riding.

 

she-is-no-lady
She Is No Lady (centre)

With luck the weather may not interfere too badly and we will have a true test of ability this afternoon.

 

Rain west, look East

Rain west, look East

After two days of sunshine and fast ground, the rain is set to descend on York from around noon today. With heavy rain forecast during racing, there could be a pronounced affect on the going. Two races for us to look at.

York 2.30: Pallasator finished a creditable second in the Goodwood Cup. From that showing he holds four of todays rivals. Wicklow Brave getting closest in a non-competitive fourth place.

Pallasator can be fractious, but if he is kept calm prior to the off, looks sure to go close. Handles all ground conditions.

Last year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner, Trip To Paris is respected after showing well on return in July following a tendon injury. Fifth in this race last year before setting off for the southern hemisphere with high profile runs in Australia and Japan.

I have the market leaders priced as follows:

Pallasator 3/1

Trip To Paris 7/2

Clever Cookie 4/1

Pallasator
Pallasator

York 3.40: Whilst the predicted rain may not have got into the firm ground for the opening races, by mid-afternoon things could look a lot different.

Mecca’s Angel won this race last year by a 2f margin. Which is quite impressive for such a 5f Group 1 sprint. Three outings this season with the latest bringing a Group 2 victory at the Curragh.

July Cup winner Limato heads the betting. Takes on 5f for the first time.

Yalta is one of two 2 y.o.’s in the race and as such gets a sizeable weight pull from his older rivals. Left the field in his wake when running away with the Molecomb at Goodwood.

I am going to price this when I have a better idea of ground conditions. Of the three studied, only Mecca’s Angel will be suited by easing ground. There was some 6/1 on offer very early this morning but that has been taken in anticipation of a going change.

Meccas Angel
Mecca’s Angel

No improvement in the weather is forecast for tomorrow when I will return to look at a few more feature races.

St. Wilfrid’s African Mission

St. Wilfrid’s African Mission

Eight races on Channel 4 this afternoon and we are going to quickly look at three of them. Two at Newbury where the going is again Good to Firm and the feature race of the year at Ripon to be run on good ground. At both courses have been watered and a dry cloudy day is forecast.

3.05 Newbury Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)

Kings Fete looks to have an excellent chance of following up his win at Goodwood. His previous run at Royal Ascot saw Ryan Moore have to snatch him up when going for a gap between horses and despite running on his chance had gone. He is not completely straightforward and this is factored into my pricing. As is the likelihood of a tactical battle amongst the small field.

Battersea makes only his second outing of the season having wintered in Meydan.

Humphrey Bogart won his Derby trial at Lingfield and has subsequently run in two Derby’s: Epsom and then at Belmont.

I have provisionally priced as follows pending a report from the course:

Kings Fete              4/5

Battersea                5/1

Humphrey Bogart 6/1

10/1 bar

kings-fete-
Kings Fete

 

4.10 Newbury Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)

 

Home Of The Brave narrowly beat Convey earlier this season at Haydock and I expect him to confirm that form.

In their last outings Home Of The Brave finished second in a Group 2 at Goodwood whilst Convey won a listed event at Pontefract.

The market looks about right and there is no great angle into the race.

I price the market leaders as follows:

Home Of The Brave 13/8

Convey 9/4

9/1 bar

 

home-of-the-brave-
Home Of The Brave

 

3.55 Ripon Great St Wilfrid Stakes (CLASS 2)

 

A highly competitive sprint handicap named after the patron saint of Ripon.

Son Of Africa caught the eye on latest start and is expected to go well at decent odds.

He has dropped to a fair handicap mark and conditions will suit.

Current 16/1 looks about right.

Our special membership starts today to cover the York Ebor meeting. More details here

 

On the Rajar

On the Rajar

Opening day of the Newbury Hungerford meeting and we have two races from there to look at this afternoon. The going is Good to Firm and has been watered. A warm sunny day is forecast.

Newbury 2.50: A competitive nine runner handicap with two of particular interest in what could be a tactical battle.

Marcano would have gone close to winning with a clear run on latest start at Sandown last week. Steps back up to a mile today.

He is a ‘hold up’ horse who needs things to fall his way. Well campaigned this season and looks sure to go well.

Exceeding Power is another who is ridden just off the pace. Last outing was at Newmarket over today’s trip at the end of July. Finished third having raced keenly.

He is running consistently well and is expected to figure. Gets 4lb from Marcano. I find it hard to split the pair as my tissue shows:

Marcano 7/2

Exceeding Power 7/2

Lulani 6/1

Steal The Scene 13/2

10/1 Bar

Exceeding Power
Exceeding Power

Newbury 3.55: The premier race of today’s Newbury card. A listed 5f sprint for 2 y.o. fillies.

The unbeaten Mrs Danvers impressed on latest start at this course. Just holds Stormy Clouds on that form although I feel the market has them too far apart.

Like Mrs Danvers, Rajar comes here off the back of three consecutive victories. Impressed at Newmarket on her latest start and is preferred in a very tight race. The drop back from 6 to 5f shouldn’t be a problem. After the Newmarket race assistant trainer Tom Ward pinpointed this race as the next step in her progression.

Paul Hanagan is the fourth different jockey for Dainty Dandy today in her three race career. Showed improved form at Ascot last time but the drop back to 5f could be a problem.

My tissue:

Rajar 4/1

Dainty Dandy 9/2

Mrs Danvers 9/2

8/1 Bar

mrs-danvers-
Mrs Danvers

Just returned from a short break in which I met up with a few contacts to assess plans for the late flat/early jumps campaigns. First day back provided a 10/1 winner from my early betting.

We have a special membership for York Ebor week at just £20. Membership starts tomorrow and runs to Sunday 21st. More details here.

Ladies Day?

Ladies Day?

Final day of Glorious Goodwood and an interesting card at Newmarket are the focus this afternoon. We are going to look at one race from each meeting.

The going at Goodwood is again Good to Firm and has been watered. Good at Newmarket and a dry cloudy day is forecast at both tracks.

3.45 Goodwood Qatar Stewards´ Cup (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)

This is such a competitive race with so many variables that it makes limited appeal as a serious betting medium.

However I do want to touch on the chance of Dancing Star. She won a highly competitive and valuable 3yo handicap at Newmarket on her latest start and is very progressive. That came after two runs in June – a second place at York in unfavourable ground and a win at this course and distance.

Looking back at last year: Magical Memory won that same Newmarket race off the same handicap mark as Dancing Star before going on to win this race, again of the same mark.

Dancing Star looks to have a decent draw and ground conditions are fine. She is sure to run a massive race.

The other 3yo in the race is Raucous who is well worth keeping a close eye on.

If his high draw [20] doesn’t disadvantage him, he is capable of a big run.

Dancing Star is 5/1 generally with Raucous in at 16/1.

 

dancing-star (Nearest)
Dancing Star (Nearest)

 

2.15 Newmarket British Stallion Studs EBF Chalice Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1)

Fireglow has the single best piece of form when 4th in the 1000 Guineas. However she has performed below that level in recent starts and has to prove she will stay this trip. She has run creditably three times at Newmarket in her twelve race career, picking up a victory here at the end of last season.

Lady Of Camelot ran well in the Lancashire Oaks and is sure to figure.

Sweeping Up is decent, stays well but is exposed.

Abingdon is the horse with most potential. A big filly with the physical scope to improve. Stepping up to 12f looks sure to suit and she can progress past her rivals.

My tissue:

Abingdon 15/8

Lady Of Camelot 3/1

Fireglow  5/1

Sweeping Up 6/1

16/1 bar.

 

Abingdon
Abingdon

 

No blog for us next week as I am visiting a number of contacts in both this country and overseas. You can find out more about my work and get a free copy of my noted horses at: http://www.slh.co.uk

Another repeat performance?

Another repeat performance?

Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood and three races for us to look at this afternoon. Plus a quick look at a few horses from yesterday that have been noted in defeat.

The going is officially Good to Firm. Currently the ground is loose on top but should dry out as racing approaches, providing there is no further rain. The top bend has been watered to stop horses from slipping.

Goodwood 2.35: Emotionless has something to prove having been well beaten on soft ground at Royal Ascot having his first run as a 3 y.o.

Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time in a bid to recapture his excellent 2 y.o. form which saw him win his two opening races before running poorly in the Dewhurst.

As we saw with Ulysses on Wednesday, the step down in grade today could be the answer for Emotionless to recapture past glory.

Promising Run has a visor fitted and the filly is worth a look at the current 7/1 on offer.

Thikrayaat heads the market at a general 9/4, which looks short to me. I go 3/1 the field.

Promising-Run
Promising Run

Goodwood 3.10: Franklin D is a handicap ‘good thing’. A repeat of his 6 length victory at Newmarket just on two weeks ago, wins him this race. I have him in at 9/4 provisionally, but whether you want to take such odds in a big field competitive handicap is open to debate.

Goodwood 3.45: Muthmir won this race last year and carries 4lb lower today. Cheek-pieces are fitted for the first time to galvanise what has been a fairly lacklustre campaign this year. If the cheek-pieces work he will go close.

Muthmir.
Muthmir

Selectively picked our way through Goodwood over the first three days and the highlight has been our strong bet on Big Orange yesterday. The relentless galloper looks to be bound for the Melbourne Cup. A race he finished fifth in last year but has definitely improved and grown since then.

Two worth noting from yesterday who both suffered narrow defeats: I am convinced that Blue Point will win plenty more races. His lack of experience got him beat by a more campaigned Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes.

Stargazer must be kept on side. He will improve again and will be suited by some ease in the ground.

Back tomorrow for the final day of Glorious Goodwood.